Rising energy prices and high inflation rates are currently worsening the longer-term economic outlook. According to the latest nowcast from the IAW and the University of Hohenheim, Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2022 remained at roughly the same level as in the second quarter. Slightly positive growth is forecast for the subsequent quarters. For the time being, Baden-Württemberg is not predicted to enter a recession - a decline in GDP over two quarters. However, this outcome is on a knife-edge in view of great uncertainty about geopolitical and global economic developments.
The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has massively worsened economic expectations. However, these developments are still only partly reflected in the economic value added and the corresponding short-term forecasts. According to the current Nowcast of the IAW and the University of Hohenheim, Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.2 per cent in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, but slightly positive growth is forecast again for the following quarter.
Press release March 17, 2022
Even without war in Ukraine, growth prospects would be weak (in German).
According to the current nowcast by the IAW and the University of Hohenheim, Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 0.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 after price and seasonal adjustments. Positive but overall weak growth is forecast again for the two subsequent quarters. This forecast does not yet take into account the effects of the war in Ukraine.
Press release December 22, 2021
Fourth Quarter 2021: Nowcast and Forecast of GDP for Baden-Württemberg - Zero Growth Remains for the Time Being (in German).
The economic recovery from the Corona crisis is receding further into the distance in Baden-Württemberg. According to the latest nowcast from the IAW and the University of Hohenheim, Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021 compared with the third quarter of 2021 after adjusting for prices and seasonal factors. The third quarter had already developed weaker than expected. According to the forecast for the two subsequent quarters, the weak development will continue into 2022. However, all current forecasts are still subject to considerable uncertainty due to the severe economic dislocations during the Corona pandemic, as the further forecast intervals show.
Press release September 29, 2021
Emerging from the Corona Crisis with Slower Growth - Nowcast and Forecast of GDP for Baden-Württemberg (in German).
According to current estimates, Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 1.7 percent in the third quarter of 2021 compared with the second quarter of 2021, adjusted for price and seasonal effects. This means that the positive economic development of the second quarter has continued in the summer of 2021. According to the forecast for the two subsequent quarters, however, this development will weaken. Growth rates around zero are expected for the fall and winter of 2021/22. All these forecasts are subject to considerable uncertainty due to the severe economic dislocations during the Corona pandemic.
