No significant economic growth is expected in Baden-Württemberg in the first quarter of 2024 either. According to the latest nowcast from the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW) and the University of Hohenheim, gross domestic product (GDP) - adjusted for seasonal and working day effects - will only increase at a growth rate of 0.1% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. The two subsequent quarters will also be characterised by low economic momentum, with the forecast growth rate moving only slightly upwards.
Overall, the different types of courses offer heterogeneous groups of participants good opportunities to further develop their linguistic and social integration. On the other hand, job-related German language support only partially achieves the desired effects in terms of labour market integration in the period of up to 30 months after the start of a vocational language course. During the language acquisition phase, vocational language courses, which are usually full-time programmes, can only be combined with gainful employment to a limited extent. Even after completing the course, former participants are less likely to be employed than comparable non-participants during the observation period.
Permeability in and out of continuing education plays a major role because, among other things, it serves to ensure the best possible care for patients and those in need of care. From a professional policy perspective and from the perspective of the educational subjects themselves, it can lead to an increase in the attractiveness of the nursing profession. However, there are a number of obstacles to further training in nursing: In addition to the high lack of transparency of further training providers, certificates and content, further training is not (sufficiently) financially worthwhile. Employer support is dependent on individual cases and rarely follows a long-term strategy - with negative effects on carers who are willing to undertake further training.
In Germany, the shadow economy will grow by 38 billion euros in 2024 to 481 billion euros and in relation to GDP by half a percentage point to 11.3 percent. This increase follows even stronger growth in the previous year. previous year. The most important reason for the increase in the shadow economy is the weak development of the official gross domestic product. The growth since since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic is similar to the average for of 20 major industrialized countries.
Companies that use digital technologies are more likely to experience problems in meeting training needs.
While companies in Baden-Württemberg are increasingly investing in digital technologies such as information and communication technologies (ICT) over time, fewer and fewer of them are supporting their employees with further training measures. Assuming that the use of digital technologies in companies causes an increased need for further training among employees, various aspects of this correlation were examined in more detail on the basis of data from the IAB Establishment Panel Baden-Württemberg. Overall, it was found that around a tenth of companies in Baden-Württemberg expect problems in meeting the need for further training.
The weak growth of the previous quarter will continue in the fourth quarter of 2023. Adjusted for seasonal and working-day effects, the gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 0.2%. Together with the negative growth in the first two quarters of this year, this results in an annual growth rate of minus 0.4% for 2023.
In the first half of 2022, the proportion of companies in the state that were active in further training increased significantly by 13 percentage points to 48 per cent (previous year: 35 per cent). The proportion was thus once again above the national average of 42 per cent. However, the level from the year before the Covid 19 pandemic (2019: 56 per cent) has not yet been reached again.
