Baden-Württemberg labor market: demand for skilled workers remains high.
The shortage of skilled workers is an increasing problem for companies in Baden-Württemberg. The long-term trend clearly points in this direction. Against this backdrop, a recent IAW study commissioned by the Baden-Württemberg Regional Directorate of the German Federal Employment Agency addresses the question of the extent to which company strategies can counteract the shortage of skilled workers. The results show, on the one hand, that companies in sectors with a shortage of skilled workers systematically apply certain strategies more frequently than other companies: For example, further training is more likely to be offered by companies that are more affected by the shortage of skilled workers. On the other hand, reorganizations are geared to the availability of skilled workers. For example, they do not increase in-house production if no skilled workers are available. And companies with a higher proportion of vacancies invest more frequently in digitization.
Reform of the German Personnel Leasing Act (AÜG): The goals were only partially achieved.
Although many stakeholders consider the intentions and objectives pursued by the legislator with the revision of the AÜG to be fundamentally sensible, the individual regulations and their implementation are assessed as complex and only effective to a limited extent overall. In particular, the two core areas of the reform, the new regulations on the maximum duration of temporary employment and on equal pay, are seen by many as in need of improvement. The relatively small scope of the effects and the often only small or undetectable strength of the effects, which are evident in many of the evaluation's findings, are due not least to the fact that overall only a limited number of individuals and companies are affected by the new regulations, because some of the "new regulations" have already been implemented for a long time, and that the overall depth of intervention is low compared to the previous situation. For these reasons, the effects of the reform - be they desirable or undesirable - remain manageable overall.
According to the latest nowcast from the IAW and the University of Hohenheim, Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared with the previous quarter, after adjusting for prices and seasonal factors. Slight economic growth of 0.3 percent is again forecast for the first quarter of 2023. The predicted economic situation thus deteriorates compared with the previous nowcast of September 2022.
Skilled foreign workers who have left - missed opportunities for the German labor market?
Between 2000 and 2020, more than 18 million foreigners immigrated to Germany, while at the same time more than 13 million foreigners left the country (excluding refugee migration). A new study by the IAW and the SOKO Institute on behalf of the Federal Employment Agency shows which foreign workers are increasingly migrating and analyzes the reasons for this. For this purpose, approximately 2,000 emigrants from ten important countries of origin of skilled labor immigration were contacted via social media after emigration and subsequently interviewed with a questionnaire.
In-company training participation in Baden-Württemberg increased slightly in 2021, but more training positions remained unfilled.
Both the net and gross training company rates increased again in the country from 49% to 52% and from 27% to 29% respectively, while the proportion of companies that did not provide in-house vocational training despite having a training authorization fell slightly from around 27% to around 26%. In Germany and western Germany, however, the net training company rates were four percentage points higher and the unutilized in-company training potential was also around two percentage points lower in each case.
In the 2020/2021 training year, around 28% of the in-company training places on offer in Baden-Württemberg remained unfilled, compared with around 23% in the 2019/2020 training year. At 72%, the filling rate in the state was at roughly the same level as in western Germany (73%).
New evidence on lifetime earnings from vocational training and higher education compared: the role of gender and career interruptions.
Education pays off! A recent study by the IAW on behalf of the Stuttgart Chamber of Industry and Commerce confirms that higher education leads to higher lifetime income and protects against unemployment. In particular, people without education are left behind at an early stage. A comparison between vocational training and higher education shows that higher education often pays off late in life (after the age of 40). On average, people who move up the educational ladder, i.e., those who continue their studies after vocational training or go on to obtain a master's degree or technician's certificate, earn similar amounts to those who study immediately after leaving school. Due to the longer educational phases, academics have to earn their lifetime income in a shorter period of time. Therefore, interruptions in employment are to be viewed particularly negatively and this can also influence the desire to have children.
Rising energy prices and high inflation rates are currently worsening the longer-term economic outlook. According to the latest nowcast from the IAW and the University of Hohenheim, Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2022 remained at roughly the same level as in the second quarter. Slightly positive growth is forecast for the subsequent quarters. For the time being, Baden-Württemberg is not predicted to enter a recession - a decline in GDP over two quarters. However, this outcome is on a knife-edge in view of great uncertainty about geopolitical and global economic developments.
The Tübingen-Hohenheim-Economics (THE) Association cordially invites you to this year’s THE (Christmas) Workshop combining a Young Researcher Workshop and a Mini Course. We plan to hold the event on campus, subject to the University’s Corona regulation.
